As one of the indispensable basic parts of industrial power transmission, reducer is widely used in environmental protection, construction, electric power, chemical industry, food, logistics, plastic, rubber, mining, metallurgy, petroleum, cement, shipping, water conservancy and other industries. In terms of reducer supply, in 2020, China's reducer production grew steadily, with the output of 9.17 million units, up 7.6% year on year. In 2021, China's reducer output is expected to break through 10 million units. Speed reducer export supply side further growth. In terms of market demand for reducer, the development prospect of industrial robot industry is broad, driving the expansion of demand for reducer and promoting the growth of market size of reducer industry. Since 2017, the market size of China's reducer industry has broken through 100 billion yuan, and it is preliminatively estimated that it will reach 119.8 billion yuan in 2020.

Supply: Production is expected to break 10 million units

Reducer, also known as reducer, is a power transmission mechanism, the use of gear speed converter, the number of motor rotation deceleration to the desired number of rotation, and get a larger torque mechanism.

Reducer is mainly aimed at the deceleration object is the motor, reducer in the prime mover and the working machine between the matching speed and transfer torque. The vast majority of the working machine load, low speed, not suitable for prime mover direct drive, need to reduce speed through the reducer, increase torque, so the vast majority of the working machine need to be equipped with reducer.

As one of the indispensable basic parts of industrial power transmission, reducer is widely used in environmental protection, construction, electric power, chemical industry, food, logistics, plastic, rubber, mining, metallurgy, petroleum, cement, shipping, water conservancy and other industries.

On the supply side of reducer, according to the data of China General Machinery Industry Association and China Machinery Industry Federation, in recent years, China's reducer output fluctuates greatly. In 2019, China's reducer output grew faster, reaching 8.52 million units, up 51.3% year on year. In 2020, China's reducer production grew steadily, with the output of 9.17 million units, up 7.6% year on year. In 2021, China's reducer production is expected to break through 10 million units.

In terms of supply enterprises, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of enterprises above the scale of China's gearbox industry fluctuates from 2015 to 2018. In 2018, the number of enterprises above the scale in China's gearbox industry was 790. The development of enterprises tends to concentrate, with the development of advanced production technology and the renewal of production lines, the manufacturing capacity of enterprises is rising, promoting the rise of national reducer output.

Note: The data of the number of enterprises above designated size in reduction and transmission machine industry in China General Machinery Industry Yearbook are updated to 2018.

Total exports increased further

Reducer export supply, 2017-2020, China's reducer industry exports gradually increased. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China's reducer industry exports totaled $2.615 billion in 2020, a further increase from 2019.

From the perspective of export product structure, the main export products of China's deceleration mechanism manufacturing industry are "gears and other transmission devices: ball screw drive shafts" (tax Code: 84834090). In 2020, the export value is us $2.359 billion, accounting for 89%. It shows that our country gear and other speed, transmission device: ball screw drive shaft product international demand is strong, the international market competitiveness is strong, thus gaining market favor.

Demand: Market size continues to rise

Reducer market demand, with the deep digging machine of decelerate of domestic market potential, expand the expansion of final consumption and stable manufacturing investment, improving the capacity of industrial base, and the implementation of the policies and measures, such as level of the industrial chain, and fulfill the policy of tax reduction JiangFei fine, reducer downstream economic running environment improved, the vitality of enterprise development will release further.

In addition, the country is based on the needs of the development of intelligent manufacturing, strongly encouraged to support the development of the industrial robot industry, industrial robot industry development prospects, the demand for speed reducer drive, drive reducer industry market scale growth, since 2017, our country reducer industry market size reached 100 billion yuan, a preliminary estimate to 119.8 billion yuan in 2020.

Total imports grew slightly

In terms of the import demand for reducer, After years of rapid development, China's reducer industry ranks among the top in the world in terms of production and sales scale, but there is a big gap between China and Europe, the United States and Japan in terms of technology and performance. Although the export volume of deceleration mechanism is large, it is also very dependent on imports for some high-end components.

Total imports of China's reducer industry fluctuated from 2017 to 2020. According to customs statistics, imports of China's reducer industry totaled about $1.685 billion in 2020, picking up from 2019.

From the perspective of import product structure, in the imported products of China's deceleration mechanism manufacturing industry in 2020, the import amount of "gear and other transmission devices: ball screw drive shaft" (tariff Number: 84834090) is 1.258 billion DOLLARS; This was followed by "planetary gear reducers" (tariff code: 84834020), with imports of $310 million in 2020; The import value of "roller screw drives" (tariff code: 84834010) was relatively small at $117 million. Planetary gear reducer and roller screw transmission device imports more than exports, China's demand for these two reducer products is large.

A number of enterprise reducer enterprise sales growth to promote

A number of enterprises speed reducer sales continue to grow, promote the expansion of the national speed reducer market. From 2016 to 2019, China's main listed reducer Jiangsu International Trade reducer Company and Ningbo Zhongdali De Company sales have increased. In 2019, jiangsu International Trade reducer sales rose from 440,400 in 2016 to 535,200; Ningbo zhongdali de company speed reducer sales slightly decreased, but its sales reached 2.198 million units, the sales volume is larger.

The rapid growth of the demand for robot reducer drives the expansion of demand

On the other hand, the downstream needs a wide range of industries, including lifting transportation, cement building materials, heavy mining, metallurgy, electric power and aviation and Marine and other fields of the national economy and defense industry. Among them, the number of reducer products used in the lifting and transportation industry accounted for about 25.02%, the number of reducer products used in the cement and building materials industry accounted for about 14.89%, and the number of heavy mining industry accounted for about 9.76%.

According to market research, general industrial robots generally have 4-6 degrees of freedom, and the number of reducer is needed for 4-6. Taking the median value, it is assumed that China's industrial robots need 5 decelerators on average. Combined with the output of China's industrial robots in recent years, Qianzhan Industrial Research Institute calculates the demand for Robot decelerators in China in recent years as follows:

According to the prediction of qianzhan Industry Research Institute, in 2020, China's industrial robot reducer demand is about 1.2 million units.